A new study claims that those climate change models that predict that global warming will reach to alarming levels by the end of the century have the most accurate current observations. Those climatic models are the one that that best capture the current planetary conditions.

The researchers also revealed that those simulation models used by the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change, on average, might be underestimating the future warming levels. This indicates mostly to the powerful climate change simulations that predict the future global warming impacts using physical equations that govern the atmosphere and the oceans. When scientists compared those climate change models with the models that accurately measure the current environment scenario, they found that the models that best captured current atmosphere conditions predicted a higher global warming level in future than that of simulated climate models. The research was carried out by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira, from the Carnegie Institution for Science in California.

Climate model simulations are used to predict the increase of future warming levels when there is an increase in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Brown said, There are dozens of prominent global climate models and they all project different amounts of global warming for a given change in greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily because there is not a consensus on how to best model some key aspects of the climate system.”

The study also revealed that the global warming levels at the end of the century are going to be 15 percent higher than the simulated climate change model predictions which the IPCC used during formulation of Paris agreement. The researchers felt that the climate change simulations that predict future global warming levels on the basis of increase in carbon emission and other greenhouse gases do not provide a satisfactory data. Also combining all those simulated models to give a future range of estimated warming levels is not completely reliable.

So, they took the help of current satellite observations of the actual atmosphere. What they did is, they compared those simulated climate models with the Earth’s current energy budget, that means the incoming and outgoing radiation of Sun, which ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature. They found out that the most accurate current climate change models that capture the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance” predict an alarming rise in global temperatures as compared to the predictions made by simulated climatic models. Caldeira said that it makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions. “Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 percent chance that global warming will exceed 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century. Previous studies had put this likelihood at 62 percent,” Caldeira stated.


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